Emerging Technologies Continue To Grow Despite Global Disruptions

The worldwide pandemic is slowing clean energy and battery capacity growth, but consumer expectations for increased sustainability, connected devices and smart homes continue to grow.

Jan Ahlen, director of Energy Solutions for NRECA; Patti Metro, senior director of Grid Operations and Reliability for NRECA; and Peter Muhoro, vice president of Strategic Industry Research and Analysis for CFC, recently joined CFC moderators on a webcast to provide a look at how energy supply forecasts are evolving and an update on renewable, storage and EV technology deployment.

Watch the State of Emerging Technologies Webinar Replay

CFC members can watch a replay of the June 22 Extra Credit Education Series webinar, “State of Emerging Technologies,” to learn more about what cooperative leaders should consider during their technology planning and what factors are shaping the utility of the future.

 

Five Key Emerging Technologies

1.     Clean Energy

In the first quarter of 2020, 3.6 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV) came online, the largest quarter on record by more than 1 GW. In addition, 5.4 GW of new utility solar PV projects were announced in the same quarter to be built in the next few years, demonstrating strong demand according to a recent Solar Energy Industry Alliance report. Even with global pandemic economic disruptions, U.S. solar and wind energy capacity are expected to exceed 2019 growth.

2.     Batteries

The battery industry continues to expand thanks to reductions in manufacturing costs. While the pandemic caused a disappointing first quarter of capacity growth, forecasts project a doubling of added battery energy storage in 2020 compared with 2019. The United States is projected to add 20 GW of energy storage capacity by 2025 with most of the capacity on the utility side paired with solar PV.

3.     Electric Vehicles

The pandemic is cutting worldwide passenger EV sales projections by more than 20 percent in 2020, and they are not expected to recover until 2025 according to a recent Bloomberg New Energy Finance report. This year will be the first year EV sales will decline from the previous year. EVs are facing challenges due to the collapse of oil prices and delays of new EV models. While the short-term forecast is bleak, long-term predictions expect EV sales to bounce back—providing electric utilities the opportunity for additional revenue when EVs are charged at night.

4.     Connected Homes and Smart Communities

Connected devices in U.S. homes are expected to grow by 10 million by 2023 according to a recent GTM Research report. Most of these products are voice assistances and smart thermostats. Electric cooperatives already lead the industry in Advanced Metering Infrastructure usage compared with other utilities according to a recent NRECA report. Smart communities use data, connected technology and smarter energy infrastructure to drive efficiencies and improve sustainability. Cities committed to meet carbon-neutral or zero-carbon goals by 2050, or earlier, will help drive the deployment of smart devices and technology throughout the grid.

5.     Connectivity

Consumer technologies are improving through the use of artificial intelligence, machine learning, grid-edge computers and cloud-based solutions. The electricity industry is working to leverage those same innovations to enhance and evolve its business models to be more competitive. Ubiquitous connectivity is a requirement to harness those innovations. Utilities will need to embrace an evolutionary path to increase their connectivity through the use of fiber and 5G wireless networks.

The pandemic may slow down some deployment of these technologies, but the long-term forecasts call for continued disruption to the traditional electricity business model. Electric utilities can turn disruptions into opportunities by becoming more efficient through the use of smarter grids, connected homes and the growth of solar, wind and battery capacities.