economy July 14, 2025

Who Will Win Next Season’s ‘Fed Apprentice’ Showdown?

An economist who follows the Federal Reserve closely doesn’t just read the minutes—they can tell you that Chairman Jerome Powell has been sporting only purple ties lately. Powell holds what many economists consider the dream job, but his term as chairman wraps up next May. You know what that means: It's time for “Fed Apprentice.”

The Wall Street Journal reports that two names are emerging as potential contenders to be the next Fed chair: Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Warsh, a former Fed governor known for his hawkish stance on inflation and close ties to Wall Street, brings a background in both central banking and finance. Hassett, a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, is recognized for his work on tax policy and strong support for pro-growth economic strategies. Both candidates reflect distinct visions for the Fed’s future—one emphasizing market discipline, the other prioritizing economic expansion.

In this season of “Fed Apprentice,” the competition is heating up. Hassett is quickly becoming the frontrunner, winning favor with President Trump’s inner circle. But don’t count out Warsh. He’s got deep ties to Wall Street and is a longtime ally of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Plot twist? Bessent himself is now rumored to be in the running. And just when you thought the cast was set, a wildcard is still there: Sitting Fed governors may enter the arena. Enter Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—both Trump appointees—who’ve hinted they might break ranks with Powell and vote to cut rates at this month’s meeting. For the Fed, breaking with the chair isn’t just rare—it’s the monetary policy version of flipping a table in the boardroom.

The upper-bound federal funds rate is holding steady at 4.5%, and despite the comments from Waller and Bowman, markets aren’t pricing in a cut for this month. With only seven meetings left before Powell’s term ends, the stage is set. Will more governors break ranks? Could Waller or Bowman earn a shot by flipping the policy table? Meanwhile, Hassett has the trust of Trump’s inner circle—but Warsh brings the camera-ready charm that could steal the spotlight at those high-stakes Fed pressers. So, who gets the chair? Stay tuned.

Markets Forecast Two Rate Cuts This Year

Source: CME FedWatch Tool