Southern Maryland Electric Cooperative (SMECO) is testing whether digital twins can help it better match member programs with local grid needs. By creating virtual models of buildings and the distribution system, the cooperative could improve load forecasts, target upgrades and evaluate whether demand-side resources can defer infrastructure investments while maintaining reliability.
A digital twin is a virtual model of a physical asset, building or system calibrated with real-world data. It allows planners to test scenarios before committing money or equipment in the field.
For SMECO, which serves more than 170,000 residential, commercial and industrial accounts across four Southern Maryland counties, the work is being driven largely by regulatory requirements for more integrated electric system planning. Meeting those requirements will require the cooperative to move beyond forecasts based primarily on systemwide history, weather and economic trends.
“We’ve become pretty clear that we have to build our forecast from the bottom up,” said Ryan Edge, SMECO vice president of strategy and innovation. “Right now, we forecast top down, looking at the cooperative’s total load based on historical trends, weather and economic growth. Going forward, we need to forecast each member’s individual load and aggregate those forecasts so we can get down to the feeder and substation level.”
"Right now, we forecast top down, looking at the cooperative’s total load based on historical trends, weather and economic growth. Going forward, we need to forecast each member’s individual load and aggregate those forecasts so we can get down to the feeder and substation level.”
–SMECO Vice President of Strategy and Innovation Ryan Edge
Building-level digital twins could provide that bridge. By combining advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data with building characteristics and program participation, SMECO could create hourly load profiles and model how electric vehicles, heat pumps, solar, batteries and efficiency upgrades may affect specific parts of its system.
Turning Building Data into Planning Insight
ICF, a global solutions and technology provider, has worked with SMECO to apply digital twins to buildings and demand-side planning.
“A digital twin uses real-world information to calibrate a mathematical model, so its output matches the building’s actual performance,” said Haider Khan, vice president of energy analytics at ICF. “That gives the utility a digital equivalent it can use to test many possible scenarios before acting in the field.”
“A digital twin uses real-world information to calibrate a mathematical model, so its output matches the building’s actual performance. That gives the utility a digital equivalent it can use to test many possible scenarios before acting in the field.” —
ICF Vice President of Energy Analytics Haider Khan
SMECO and ICF have used building data to create 8,760-hour load profiles and examine whether demand response and energy efficiency could reduce peak demand at a constrained substation. The analysis tests whether member incentives could defer a capacity investment while maintaining reliability.
The models also can account for uncertainty, including thermostat overrides, unavailable devices and changing participation.
“We can run a broad range of scenarios and quantify the probability that demand-side resources will be available when the system needs them,” Khan said. “If planners require a specific confidence level, the model can show how much participation is needed to reach it.”
This approach could extend the value of SMECO’s AMI investment. Interval data already used for meter reading and operations can also calibrate models of buildings and the grid. The resulting analysis could help the cooperative identify buildings likely to benefit from a particular upgrade and focus member outreach.
From System Planning to Member Decisions
SMECO also is working with Plentiful.ai to explore personalized upgrade roadmaps.
“Utilities don’t have the luxury of not having a model of their buildings anymore,” said Jason S. Trager, co-founder of Plentiful.ai. “For a co-op, it’s actually a service. If you understand how buildings perform, you can help members understand their upgrade options and make better decisions about their homes.”
“Utilities don’t have the luxury of not having a model of their buildings anymore. For a co-op, it’s actually a service. If you understand how buildings perform, you can help members understand their upgrade options and make better decisions about their homes.”—Plentiful.ai Co-founder Jason S. Trager
Paired with SMECO’s free home energy audit, a roadmap could help members compare weatherization, heat pumps, water-heating upgrades and batteries. Updating the model as projects are completed could improve future recommendations and system forecasts.
For Trager, the shift comes down to thinking differently about the people cooperatives serve.
“People don’t live in meters,” he said. “People don’t work in meters. They live in buildings.”
That perspective aligns with SMECO’s cooperative roots. By understanding how buildings perform rather than simply tracking load, the cooperative hopes to support affordability, reliability and better member service while making more informed grid investments.
