economy
June 28, 2021
Eyes on the Economy: Jobs, Inflation, Housing
Job Openings Remain Elevated in a Limbo Economy
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data confirm the challenges employers face to fill vacancies. The number of job openings surged to a record 9.3 million as of April—a million more than March. Hiring remained flat at 6 million, widening the gap for employers.
Businesses continue to struggle to fill vacancies for a variety of reasons. First, it takes time to fill positions after quick shutdowns and recent reopenings in many parts of the economy. Second, many workers are not looking for jobs due to child care and health concerns. The labor force is still 3.6 million workers smaller than it was pre-pandemic. This constraint should relax when schools reopen in the fall and the pandemic diminishes. Third, companies may no longer exist, so workers must find new jobs or may be considering a career change. Fourth, many baby boomers who lost their jobs—or left for health reasons—are unlikely to rejoin the workforce. Fifth, the availability of enhanced-unemployment benefits is enabling workers to search longer and not have to take the first available job. This has led some GOP governors to roll back unemployment benefits in an effort to spur people to return to work.
2021 Job Openings and Hires (Millions)
Recent Economic Releases
| Indicator | Prior period | Current period (forecast) | Current period (actual) |
|---|---|---|---|
| JOLTS Job Openings (April) | 8,123K | 8,200K | 9286K |
| Headline Consumer Price Index (May) (YoY) | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| Core Consumer Price Index (May)(YoY) | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Housing Starts (May) | 1,569K | 1,630K | 1,572K |
Key Interest Rates
| 6/21/21 | 6/14/21 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds | 0.25% | 0.25% | -- |
| 1-mo. Libor | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.02 |
| 3-mo. Libor | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.02 |
| 2-yr. UST | 0.26% | 0.16% | 0.10 |
| 5-yr. UST | 0.89% | 0.80% | 0.09 |
| 10-yr. UST | 1.45% | 1.51% | (0.06) |
| 30-yr. UST | 2.01% | 2.19% | (0.18) |
Rate Forecast - Futures Market
| Q2-21 | Q3-21 | Q4-21 | Q1-22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| 1-mo. Libor | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 3-mo. Libor | 0.20% | 0.25% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 2-yr. UST | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 5-yr. UST | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.20% | 1.20% |
| 10-yr. UST | 1.78% | 1.85% | 1.95% | 1.95% |
| 30-yr. UST | 2.53% | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.70% |
