economy March 23, 2026

Economic & Market Watch

Intelligence Brief & Dashboard

Our weekly download features both a big-picture economic dashboard and an in-depth intelligence brief covering a single facet of the economy.

In this week's brief: Forecasting Recession Probability.

Download the Brief

Economic & Market Watch is on hiatus the week of March 30, returning April 6.

In the News

Economy

  • U.S. mortgage rates rose to about 6.36% for a 30-year loan, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical instability as the Federal Reserve continues to hold interest rates steady.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the U.S. central bank could need to either raise interest rates or return to rate cuts depending on the war in the Middle East.

Markets

  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell to roughly $89/barrel after last week’s spike, driven by an announced five-day pause in U.S. military action against Iran that eased immediate supply disruption fears.
  • U.S. stocks rebounded as investors reacted positively to easing geopolitical tensions following President Trump’s comment and reassessed risks tied to the Iran conflict.

Current Events

  • President Trump ordered the Pentagon to postpone strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, citing “good and productive” talks with Iran over the past two days. However, Iranian media outlets strongly denied any direct or indirect communication with the administration while Israel said it is not seeing an imminent end to the war.
  • U.S. Ambassador to the European Union (EU) Andrew Puzder warned the EU must implement its trade deal with the U.S. without amendments or risk losing favorable access to liquefied natural gas shipments from American exporters.

Recent and Relevant

Meet the Team

CFC's economic research team—John Suter, Sam Kem and Antony Davies—share their expert, yet easily digestible, perspective on what you need to know.

Have feedback about the podcast? A topic you'd like the EMW team to cover? Get in touch at economicresearch@nrucfc.coop.

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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Trading Economics

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